Coverage

Threats Observer combines selected public reporting with official assessments. Coverage is uneven and not exhaustive. An empty part of the map does not establish a low threat level.

Evidence and confidence

Reported events, advisories and assessments are labelled individually. High confidence indicates a clear official or strong corroborated source trail. Medium indicates a credible report with material uncertainty; low indicates substantial uncertainty. Attribution remains attributed to the publisher.

Dates and locations

The timeline groups reports by their source publication date, not the exact time an incident occurred. Map markers represent approximate affected regions, not front lines or precise attacks. Global cyber campaigns and AI assessments without a reliable physical location remain in the report list.

Scenario analysis

Thinktank reports inform the analysis; they are not confirmations that an event will occur. Each source retains its author, publication date and perspective. Our scenario synthesis is attributed separately from the source argument. Multiple articles based on one underlying report are one evidence chain, not independent corroboration. Where views differ, we describe the disagreement. Review dates indicate when an assessment should be reconsidered, not when an event is predicted to happen.

Risk index

The index averages three editorial dimensions: military escalation, infrastructure exposure and economic spillovers. It is not statistically calibrated and does not estimate the probability of world war. Severity concerns potential impact; confidence concerns the evidence.

Updates

The displayed timestamp is the time of the stored briefing. If a scheduled update fails, the last valid briefing remains visible and its age is shown. Updates change the JSON content; the layout remains fixed.

Source directory

Map credits

Country geometry: Natural Earth. Map interaction: Leaflet. Interface icons: Blueprint. Boundaries are illustrative and not authoritative.